rankOar Women's College Rowing Computer Ranking
Week 1 Computer Ranking
April 13, 2023
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | Yale University | 9,865.00 |
2 | University of Texas – Austin | 9,315.30 |
3 | Syracuse University | 9,065.70 |
4 | Stanford University | 9,051.90 |
5 | Princeton University | 9,034.10 |
6 | University of Virginia | 9,003.20 |
7 | University of Pennsylvania | 8,961.30 |
8 | Brown University | 8,535.40 |
9 | University of Michigan | 8,197.80 |
10 | Harvard-Radcliffe University | 8,139.40 |
11 | Ohio State University | 8,022.40 |
12 | Southern Methodist University | 7,897.20 |
13 | Duke University | 7,700.90 |
14 | University of Washington | 7,596.90 |
15 | Rutgers University | 7,319.00 |
16 | University of California – Berkley | 7,299.60 |
17 | University of Iowa | 7,161.30 |
18 | Oregon State University | 6,857.50 |
19 | University of Tulsa | 6,743.70 |
20 | Indiana University | 6,647.70 |
21 | Boston University | 6,627.00 |
22 | University of Miami | 6,625.60 |
23 | Columbia University | 6,587.80 |
24 | University of Alabama | 6,582.20 |
25 | University of Rhode Island | 6,530.20 |
26 | Clemson University | 6,485.20 |
27 | University of Tennessee | 6,466.70 |
28 | George Washington University | 6,443.80 |
29 | University of Southern California | 6,191.10 |
30 | University of Notre Dame | 6,164.90 |
31 | Gonzaga University | 6,164.30 |
32 | Northeastern University | 6,145.50 |
33 | Drexel University | 6,120.80 |
34 | University of Dayton | 6,119.90 |
35 | University of Massachusetts – Amherst | 6,067.00 |
36 | University of Wisconsin | 6,047.80 |
37 | University of Louisville | 6,038.00 |
38 | Boston College | 5,987.10 |
39 | University of Delaware | 5,858.20 |
40 | Merrimack College | 5,830.80 |
41 | Duquesne University | 5,761.40 |
42 | United States Naval Academy | 5,751.50 |
43 | Washington State University | 5,642.00 |
44 | Iona College | 5,618.20 |
45 | Santa Clara University | 5,558.10 |
46 | University of California – Los Angeles | 5,484.70 |
47 | University of San Diego | 5,455.10 |
48 | California State University – Sacramento | 5,336.70 |
49 | University of Oklahoma | 5,253.10 |
50 | University of Minnesota | 5,221.10 |
51 | Georgetown University | 5,205.80 |
52 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 5,092.40 |
53 | Michigan State University | 5,077.50 |
54 | Temple University | 4,884.50 |
55 | University of Central Florida | 4,876.40 |
56 | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | 4,802.40 |
57 | University of Kansas | 4,772.10 |
58 | Dartmouth College | 4,740.00 |
59 | Bucknell University | 4,620.30 |
60 | Villanova University | 4,562.40 |
61 | University of California – San Diego | 4,554.20 |
62 | Cornell University | 4,510.40 |
63 | Kansas State University | 4,348.50 |
64 | Loyola Marymount University | 4,306.50 |
65 | College of the Holy Cross | 4,182.40 |
66 | Jacksonville University | 4,142.90 |
67 | Saint Joseph's University | 4,043.60 |
68 | Old Dominion University | 3,965.30 |
69 | La Salle University | 3,838.90 |
70 | University of Connecticut | 3,744.90 |
71 | Saint Mary’s College of California | 3,627.50 |
72 | Marist College | 3,550.90 |
73 | University of Portland | 3,412.60 |
74 | Eastern Michigan University | 3,390.70 |
75 | West Virginia University | 3,312.10 |
76 | Colgate University | 3,218.70 |
77 | Fairfield University | 2,870.90 |
78 | Loyola University Maryland | 2,696.30 |
79 | Fordham University | 2,639.60 |
80 | Stetson University | 2,576.40 |
81 | Sacred Heart University | 1,946.40 |
82 | Seattle University | 1,798.70 |
83 | Drake University | 1,453.50 |
84 | George Mason University | 1,344.90 |
85 | Manhattan College | 1,331.60 |
86 | Robert Morris University – Pennsylvania | 28 |
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | Yale University | 9865 |
2 | University of Pennsylvania | 9255 |
3 | University of Texas – Austin | 8585 |
4 | Syracuse University | 8555 |
5 | Stanford University | 8376 |
6 | Princeton University | 8023 |
7 | Southern Methodist University | 7910 |
8 | Ohio State University | 7881 |
9 | University of Virginia | 7835 |
10 | University of Michigan | 7826 |
11 | Brown University | 7790 |
12 | Columbia University | 7787 |
13 | University of California – Berkley | 7691 |
14 | University of Washington | 7656 |
15 | University of Tennessee | 7592 |
16 | Harvard-Radcliffe University | 7565 |
17 | Oregon State University | 7522 |
18 | Northeastern University | 7374 |
19 | Duke University | 7364 |
20 | Rutgers University | 7213 |
21 | Indiana University | 7152 |
22 | University of Alabama | 6980 |
23 | University of Southern California | 6710 |
24 | University of Wisconsin | 6596 |
25 | University of Oklahoma | 6532 |
26 | United States Naval Academy | 6510 |
27 | University of Miami | 6469 |
28 | University of Iowa | 6440 |
29 | University of Central Florida | 6409 |
30 | Clemson University | 6405 |
31 | University of California – Los Angeles | 6349 |
32 | Duquesne University | 6268 |
33 | University of Notre Dame | 6170 |
34 | Washington State University | 6162 |
35 | Boston University | 6119 |
36 | California State University – Sacramento | 6107 |
37 | Santa Clara University | 6096 |
38 | Gonzaga University | 5972 |
39 | University of Minnesota | 5950 |
40 | Michigan State University | 5867 |
41 | University of Dayton | 5854 |
42 | Bucknell University | 5582 |
43 | University of Kansas | 5576 |
44 | Cornell University | 5565 |
45 | Drexel University | 5493 |
46 | Loyola Marymount University | 5399 |
47 | Fordham University | 5361 |
48 | Villanova University | 5304 |
49 | University of Louisville | 5302 |
50 | George Washington University | 5185 |
51 | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | 5138 |
52 | University of Tulsa | 5041 |
53 | University of California – San Diego | 4994 |
54 | University of Delaware | 4928 |
55 | University of Rhode Island | 4907 |
56 | Temple University | 4865 |
57 | Boston College | 4699 |
58 | Fairfield University | 4690 |
59 | University of San Diego | 4674 |
60 | University of Massachusetts – Amherst | 4597 |
61 | Dartmouth College | 4509 |
62 | Jacksonville University | 4442 |
63 | La Salle University | 4423 |
64 | Saint Joseph's University | 4313 |
65 | College of the Holy Cross | 4272 |
66 | University of Connecticut | 4033 |
67 | West Virginia University | 4003 |
68 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 3996 |
69 | Georgetown University | 3726 |
70 | Sacred Heart University | 3475 |
71 | Kansas State University | 3230 |
72 | University of Portland | 3222 |
73 | Marist College | 3029 |
74 | Seattle University | 2854 |
75 | Colgate University | 2705 |
76 | Stetson University | 2604 |
77 | Saint Mary’s College of California | 2496 |
78 | Eastern Michigan University | 2471 |
79 | Manhattan College | 1700 |
80 | Old Dominion University | 1665 |
81 | Drake University | 1581 |
82 | George Mason University | 1242 |
83 | Loyola University Maryland | 203 |
84 | Robert Morris University – Pennsylvania | 28 |
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | Yale University | 9865 |
2 | University of Texas – Austin | 9647 |
3 | Princeton University | 9470 |
4 | Brown University | 8725 |
5 | University of Virginia | 8679 |
6 | Stanford University | 8531 |
7 | Syracuse University | 8428 |
8 | University of California – Berkley | 8378 |
9 | University of Washington | 8371 |
10 | Duke University | 7886 |
11 | Southern Methodist University | 7810 |
12 | University of Notre Dame | 7460 |
13 | University of Michigan | 7377 |
14 | University of Pennsylvania | 7360 |
15 | Ohio State University | 7355 |
16 | Harvard-Radcliffe University | 7343 |
17 | University of California – Los Angeles | 7070 |
18 | University of Iowa | 7038 |
19 | University of Southern California | 6950 |
20 | Rutgers University | 6945 |
21 | Indiana University | 6700 |
22 | University of Alabama | 6519 |
23 | University of Tennessee | 6491 |
24 | University of Central Florida | 6463 |
25 | United States Naval Academy | 6338 |
26 | Northeastern University | 6333 |
27 | Michigan State University | 6235 |
28 | University of Wisconsin | 6177 |
29 | Boston University | 5931 |
30 | University of Miami | 5890 |
31 | University of California – San Diego | 5857 |
32 | Gonzaga University | 5826 |
33 | Boston College | 5780 |
34 | Oregon State University | 5764 |
35 | University of Tulsa | 5678 |
36 | University of Kansas | 5632 |
37 | University of Dayton | 5587 |
38 | La Salle University | 5502 |
39 | University of Oklahoma | 5497 |
40 | Jacksonville University | 5418 |
41 | California State University – Sacramento | 5386 |
42 | Bucknell University | 5308 |
43 | University of San Diego | 5272 |
44 | College of the Holy Cross | 5225 |
45 | University of Rhode Island | 5201 |
46 | Kansas State University | 5176 |
47 | Cornell University | 5082 |
48 | George Washington University | 4992 |
49 | Georgetown University | 4937 |
50 | University of Massachusetts – Amherst | 4935 |
51 | Washington State University | 4917 |
52 | Drexel University | 4684 |
53 | University of Minnesota | 4656 |
54 | University of Delaware | 4469 |
55 | Clemson University | 4418 |
56 | University of Connecticut | 4405 |
57 | Dartmouth College | 4277 |
58 | Fordham University | 4257 |
59 | Sacred Heart University | 4218 |
60 | Saint Mary’s College of California | 4150 |
61 | Loyola Marymount University | 4146 |
62 | Temple University | 4105 |
63 | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | 3889 |
64 | Fairfield University | 3653 |
65 | University of Portland | 3422 |
66 | Colgate University | 3316 |
67 | University of Louisville | 3120 |
68 | George Mason University | 3012 |
69 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 2884 |
70 | Loyola University Maryland | 2461 |
71 | Marist College | 2184 |
72 | Stetson University | 2178 |
73 | Seattle University | 1865 |
74 | Eastern Michigan University | 1792 |
75 | Santa Clara University | 1448 |
76 | West Virginia University | 1146 |
77 | Drake University | 1063 |
78 | Saint Joseph's University | 701 |
79 | Old Dominion University | 28 |
What is the RankOAR?
April 18th poll: We implemented a better test to make sure crews are sufficiently connected to the central mass of races, which excluded a few of teams that were previously ranked. This will improve the overall quality of the rankings by making sure that teams have comparisons to all the other teams (think: 6 Degrees to Kevin Bacon).
We saw a lot of movement in the rankings this past week as there was more racing between crews that only had distant comparisons previously. There are still a few teams with only a single weekend of racing connecting them to the rest of the teams, but the rankings as a whole have far more data than last week to make accurate comparisons.
The RankOAR is an approach to computer rankings that simulates each actual rowing race thousands of times. Each simulation is based on what are the likely outcomes if this race happened over and over, with the normal variations that happen in a race, guided by the outcome of the actual races. The mathematical basis is Luce's Choice Axiom, which is an elegant way to deal with uncertainty in comparisons between items. It is the same algorithm that makes your "what else to watch" suggestions on Netflix and that powers the Elo rankings for Chess. Like other ranking systems, these rankings are not intended to replace polls by knowledgeable experts.
Rowing, like all athletic competitions, involves a degree of uncertainty. Athletic performance in elite-level athletes generally varies as much as 1% from day to day. The problem this ranking system solves is how to properly rank broad comparisons with uncertainty about the uncertainty. This problem is simplistically described by the following results:
From a small number of races, it is hard to determine if a single event is the result of a good or a bad day by each crew. In the above example, it is not intuitive which team would likely be faster at week 4. When this problem is scaled to over a hundred teams and three months of races, it should be obvious that any rankings are not an absolute comparison.
The RankOAR makes no attempt to predict time differences in future races, but instead grades the teams with a relative number that generally falls between 0 and 10,000. Teams that are exceptionally fast will be near, or even above, 10,000. While the bottom teams will be near, or even below, 0. The numerical distance between teams signifies how close the teams are predicted to be in next week's events. Small differences generally predict more competitive races.
Methodology:
Luce's Choice Axiom is a well understood method to deal with uncertainty in comparisons. The best current generalized iteration is the Plackett-Luce Choice Axiom, which is accessible through the Choix package in Python. To better match college rowing performance, we add an age element, where older races count for less value than more recent races.
RankOAR does consider margin of victory, but only as far as it goes to determine how likely Team A is to beat Team B if that same race was repeated thousands of times. As a general guide, the simulations expect that in a given race, if Team A beats Team B by a boat length, Team A will win ~70% of the simulated races of that particular race. If the margin is three boat lengths, Team A will be expected to win >98% of the simulated races. While heats are less important than finals, the nature of the simulation generally accounts for teams 'saving themselves' for the finals if their place is secure.
Ranking results get published as soon as there is sufficient data for the model to converge on a solution. Generally, the First Varsity Eight (1V8) in Division 1 has the most early-season data and can produce a ranking before other events or divisions. All rankings points are probabilistic, meaning that there will be small variations each time the model is run, but the scale of the variations is such that only teams which are functionally tied in the rankings might be affected. NCAA Projected Finish uses the same points system that the NCAA championships use, modified for a larger pool of teams.
This is a naive model, as it does not consider underlying aspects that can affect performance, such as how far the teams must travel to the race, how long since their last race, their lane, if things went wrong on race day, what race conditions are, and who is missing from the lineup on race day.
Data:
To produce the best possible results, the model includes all available college results. The vast majority of this data is from Row2K. Standard ranked events include the 1V8, 2V8, 1V4, 2V4, and 3V8/1N8. If there is sufficient data, 3V4 and 4V8/2N8 events are also included. Boats that row in an event different from their normal event are not included, except when they faced a similar boat in that race. While lightweights are included, they are difficult to rank since they are not always entered in the same events. For example, is the lightweight boat entered in the 2V8 event a true 2V8 lightweight boat, or is it the 1V8 lightweight boat entered in the race below that school's 1V8 heavyweight boat? All divisions, including club races, are included. Due to the difficulty in cleaning the data, it is currently limited to only the women's rankings.
RankOAR history:
The rankings were developed by Nate Carmody with support from Curt Hastings. While Nate has a 20-year history in rowing, Curt has a 20-year history in Big Data and Machine Learning and once rowed 500m in 1:50 on a C2 erg. Nate coaches high school rowing out of Sandy Run Boathouse on the Occoquan and is most recognizable by his constant canine companion Teddy.